Public opinion on the US-China trade war and the emerging economic role of India is highly mixed. Optimism exists about India's potential to leverage the situation and rise as an economic power in Asia. However, concerns over India's infrastructure and readiness are significant. Skepticism towards India's 'Make in India' initiative due to reliance on imports is evident. Criticism of the US administration's trade policies and skepticism on tariffs add to the mixed sentiment. Some commenters praise Singapore and ASEAN's leadership in contrast to the US. Overall, there's recognition of the complexities of economic dependency and geopolitical tensions.

India

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📣 **[Submission Statement by OP](/r/GeopoliticsIndia/comments/1f7swcu/indias_growing_reliance_on_china_poses_challenge/ll9napo/)**:
&gt; SS: Karishma Mehrotra, writing for WaPo, highlights India’s growing economic dependence on Chinese imports, framing it as a significant challenge to the U.S. strategy of reducing reliance on China. As India ramps up production in key sectors like electronics, pharmaceuticals, and solar energy, it remains heavily reliant on Chinese components, which Mehrotra and analysts like Sriparna Pathak and Pankaj Mohindroo suggest could undermine efforts to “de-risk” global supply chains. Pankaj Mohindroo, the chairman of India Cellular &amp; Electronics Association, and V. Anantha Nageswaran, Indian government's Chief Economic Adviser, argue that India’s manufacturing growth is closely tied to Chinese imports and expertise, suggesting that India might need to embrace this relationship in the short term to build its industrial capacity. Mehrotra also notes the cautious reopening of Chinese investments in India, despite geopolitical tensions, underscoring the broader challenge of balancing economic growth with strategic objectives.
&gt;
&gt;My thoughts/non-thoughts: The premise presented by Mehrotra misses a crucial point: this reliance on Chinese imports isn’t a weakness but a necessary step for India’s industrial ascent. The suggestion that India’s dependence on China undermines U.S. goals oversimplifies the reality of global supply chains. The real challenge is not India’s reliance on Chinese imports but the unrealistic expectation that India—or any country—can decouple/de-risk from China while simultaneously scaling up its manufacturing capabilities. (Please do correct me in case I misunderstood her.) 

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GeoIndModBot

China is the world's factory.

It is very foolish to develop manufacturing independently from China.

Imagine you are a Western factory owner.

If Indian customs always seize the equipment and accessories from China， and prohibit Chinese engineers from obtaining visas, would you dare to move your factory to India?

[deleted]

No prizes for guessing who is trying to stoke political instability in the entirety of the Indian sub continent.

Paladin_5963

SS: Karishma Mehrotra, writing for WaPo, highlights India’s growing economic dependence on Chinese imports, framing it as a significant challenge to the U.S. strategy of reducing reliance on China. As India ramps up production in key sectors like electronics, pharmaceuticals, and solar energy, it remains heavily reliant on Chinese components, which Mehrotra and analysts like Sriparna Pathak and Pankaj Mohindroo suggest could undermine efforts to “de-risk” global supply chains. Pankaj Mohindroo, the chairman of India Cellular &amp; Electronics Association, and V. Anantha Nageswaran, Indian government's Chief Economic Adviser, argue that India’s manufacturing growth is closely tied to Chinese imports and expertise, suggesting that India might need to embrace this relationship in the short term to build its industrial capacity. Mehrotra also notes the cautious reopening of Chinese investments in India, despite geopolitical tensions, underscoring the broader challenge of balancing economic growth with strategic objectives.

My thoughts/non-thoughts: The premise presented by Mehrotra misses a crucial point: this reliance on Chinese imports isn’t a weakness but a necessary step for India’s industrial ascent. The suggestion that India’s dependence on China undermines U.S. goals oversimplifies the reality of global supply chains. The real challenge is not India’s reliance on Chinese imports but the unrealistic expectation that India—or any country—can decouple/de-risk from China while simultaneously scaling up its manufacturing capabilities. (Please do correct me in case I misunderstood her.)

telephonecompany

I have written on this subject and know one of the authors. I agree that we are dependent on China for our manufacturing, more than I would like, but there's point in US getting worked up  
about it. They have themselves to blame to a large extent.   
  
Any export of advanced tech by the US to India (defense is an example) is first subject to Congress approval - as if we have to be grateful that white sahib has given permission. Even after that, it comes with the risk of being sanctioned, if we don't follow LGBT rights, or persecute minorities (as perceived by US), or our courts give a verdict the IS does not like. It may be easier for a businessman to go to the US illegally walking across the Mexico border, than to get a visa.   
  
It will be in the US's interest if they work with us in identifying cases of Chinese dumping or under-invoicing of imports, which hurt our revenue and is unfair trade.

Dean_46

India should be buying as much manufacturing capital from China as possible because it’s simply cheaper and nowadays just as good as anything from US, Europe, Japan/Korea. If India wants to become a major  industrial and manufacturing power it has to go this route. The key goal here is for everyone to remember that the long term goal is to climb the ladder into advanced and self-sufficient manufacturing, but you have to start somewhere. India will never get there if it has to buy or pay western MSRP prices for those equipment and have to deal with the exorbitant services costs and IP protection western companies have built around their stuff.

The risk is Indian businessmen become comfortable and overly dependent on China supply chain and lose focus on the self-sufficient goal. You saw this in China where they became overly reliant on Western chips in their leading edge devices instead of developing their own. Something they’re aggressively correctly now

endeend8

As opposed to the current reliance of us on China?

archjh

As if Americans don't have reliance on China. Right now, we need the Chinese for our industrial development. This is just a reality we have to accept.

Blackadder_101

Thats because, Lakhs and lakhs of Indians are entering into the manufacturing (SME) business. New startups are coming up, Textile, Solar Panels, electronics all items are bought from China for cheap and white labelled in India. 

These new startups and SME’s dont have the funding or budget to start their own manufacturing plant in India so they buy from China for cheap and sell it here. 

Although the balance of trade shifts completely towards China, Indians are getting employment, govt gets taxes and these SMEs contribute 40% to Indian GDP. 

I will reserve my opinions for few more years, but if non of these startups open their manufacturing units in India and continue procuring from China after say 4-5 years, actions should be taken on Chinese dumping.

165Hertz

Given the trade imbalance that currently favors China, the US is an export surplus bright spot. As China navigates its housing, banking, and age demographic issues, India should reap the benefits of China’s instability.

vt2022cam



The escalating tariff war between the United States and China is undoubtedly a cause for concern. Firstly, higher tariffs disrupt global supply chains, increase costs for businesses, and eventually lead to higher prices for consumers. This can reduce purchasing power and slow down overall economic growth. Emerging markets and export-dependent economies may be hit the hardest due to reduced global trade flows.

To de-escalate tensions, both countries should re-engage in constructive dialogue, possibly under the mediation of the World Trade Organization or neutral economic bodies. A commitment to fair trade practices and mutual economic cooperation is essential.

For businesses, this uncertainty increases risk and discourages long-term investments. Consumers may face rising prices and limited product choices. Overall, such trade wars tend to create a lose-lose situation, and global economic stability should be prioritized through diplomatic and balanced negotiation.

.

Piyush4758

China directly controls 92% of the world's rare magnet production.  Good luck moving that production in house mango man.

It's not even chess vs. checkers at this point.  It's more like Go vs Chutes and Ladders.

Doza13

Well, it looks and sounds like China has the upper hand. Trump needs to decide if the USA needs what China trades. Can the USA survive without computers and machinery?

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Could be.  These tariffs are very aggressive moves against China.  And China is responding tit for tat to US tariffs.  This could easily be the start of much colder relations normally seen in a cold war.

UnusualAir1

The Cold War 2 began pretty much the same time OEF/OIF (9/11) happened. It is a cyber-social war, one in which we are losing. It began with China brazenly stealing classified information and tech from the Pentagon and military contractors (Lockheed Martin has been hit numerous times by Chinese government hackers in the past 25 years) and moved to social engineering by creating divisive social and political memes (from both China and Russia), among other politically-related events.

What we are seeing now is just a flash-in-the-pan prelude to Cold War \*3,\* a financial war, as you suggest, that will definitely go full-blown if Trump keeps acting this way (which, given his history and mentality...).

Candle-Jolly

The Cold War was the Russians vs the West. Now that Trump has allied with Russia the cold war that is brewing is the West vs Russia and the US. The US is putting massive tariffs on countries that used to be American allies, like Canada, Mexico, the EU, and no tariffs on Russia. Trump is also withdrawing support for NATO.

Economically the US and China have had strained economic relations since China went Communist in 1949. China and Russia also have strained relationships. The US' trade war with China is welcome news to Putin and Russia. 

It helps to remember that economically, Russia is much smaller than the US or China. Russia GDP is about the same as Texas, or somewhat over half of California. Russia GDP is about 12% of China's.

The old order in the Pacific was the US allied with Japan and South Korea, and more recently with Vietnam. Now those countries are looking towards China due to Trump's tariff attacks. The EU was also a close US ally but now they too are looking towards China and away from the US. 

Putin may welcome Trump's efforts to weaken and isolate the US, but he might not have counted on China filling in the vacuum and reducing ties with Russia.

billpalto

I don't think you understand what the cold war is/was if you think it involved tanks.  And FYI. The cold war never ended, Russia won when MAGA gained traction.

Busterlimes

Fat Trump is a Russian asset and this destructive idiocy will likely die with him.

How does the government picking and choosing winners and losers with tariffs even allign with free market principles?

lovetoseeyourpssy

&gt;Trump says things will settle once countries sign new trade deals, but until then, it kind of feels like we're in a long-term economic staring contest.

Settle for who?  The rest of the world?  Sure, they'll be just fine.  Meanwhile, we're going to be close to destitute.

ERedfieldh

Possible. Everyone is saying “China can’t touch us with our military” but I think it’s pretty clear that China could bring a whole lot of damage and disruption to our lives with economic consequences versus combat. This just didn’t need to happen. Trump was arrogant and foolish and incompetent and now we have this big beast to wrangle.

ScarTemporary6806

Trump folded already. Any hope of the US bringing manufacturing jobs was surrendered last tuesday in exchange for a 1 day bump to the stock markets and trump personal insider trading. He has two choices end all significant tarrifs or watch the US continue to lose financial hegemony either way the united states and it's citizens are the ones that lost here.

Educational-Dance-61

You've been living in a New Cold War since at least 2008 when the country of Georgia tried to prevent its Russian-backed breakaway territory from, well, breaking away. Russia got involved in the first test of Putin's "Anyone who speaks Russian anywhere in the world is a Russian" Policy. Georgia was getting friendly with the West, there was talk of possibly folding it into NATO like several other Eastern European/Former Soviet state had been in recent years, and Putin wanted to draw a definitive line in the sand. Seven Years later he annexed Crimea and invaded the Eastern-most provinces of Ukraine, claiming the newly Pro-Western Government of Ukraine was oppressing Ethnic and Linguistic Russians. Bush, Obama, Trump (rather the momentum of US Foreign policy as it continued under his first admin), and Biden all tried to contain and control Russia through soft and less-soft diplomatic means-- Sanctions, international pressure, making them a pariah state, and ultimately banning them participating from most international (non-political) organizations. The War in Ukraine has been a proxy war between Russia and the West for 11 years now, one that only openly turned hot in 2022 with opening of the war in earnest. 

The World and its political blocs are realigning right in front of you. The world you grew up with is dead and disappearing into the distance in your rear view mirror. Domestically, even if there are free and fair elections in three years and a Democrat is elected, the United States is never going back to the way it was. The GOP plan is to "fix" everything so that its "the way its supposed to be", and do so so-quickly and so-violently that any attempt to move the pieces back where they should be will take too long and be a fools errand. Internationally the American Dollar's command over the global economy is being rapidly eroded as nations like Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates are all colluding to divorce their economies, and the international trading order, from the Dollar. Europe is forging its own military, diplomatic, and trade policies free from considerations of the USA and its administration. The World Order that has existed, and benefited, the USA since the end of the Second World War is at an end. It is a Brave New World and you need to see that the world around you has already changed irrevocably. You need to find a way forward because there's no going back.

Fofolito

I think it's market manipulation more than anything to do with strengthening our economy.

Klutzy_Bake_323

I wouldn't expect many new trade deals.  Trump has proven the US is an unreliable partner and cannot be trusted.  The world is moving on from the US.

MJcorrieviewer

Things *will* settle down when new treaties are signed. But they won't be between the US and folks. They will be between *China* and the EU. *China and pan-Pacific nations. *China* and African nations. Etc etc etc.

I saw a talking head last week lay out the new normal. The US and China are on a level field now. But they have different trajectories. China is in ascendence, and the US is in decline. *Before* so-called "Liberation Day".

Before folks @me into oblivion, think about two things. One a definite fact, the other admittedly supposition:

Fact- After Trump’s idiocy in trying to force the world into a supine position, Japan has been shedding its massive amount of owned US debt. Quite a bit of it.

Supposition- Dependent on the extent of Japan's overall reaction to a now undependable/unstable US financial environment, are they still the world's largest holder of US debt? Or is that position now held by China?

I saw a thumbnail on YouTube from The Bulwark, "The American Age is Over," or some such. It was what I thought hyperbolic ass hell at the time. Now? Not so much.

onikaizoku11

The United States has been the sole superpower since the Fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, The People's Republic of China isn't an economic threat until a few weeks ago.

However, the United States still maintains the Policy of Containment around the People's Republic of China with major US military installations spread throughout the Indo-Pacific in South Korea, Japan, The Philippines, Australia and New Zealand acting as a layered military, economic and political defense network around China. 

The Chinese is NOT peer-to-peer with the United States except in economics and technology while China is politically, militarily and culturally Isolated for now. The United States is the sole superpower because it dominates in every single continent with powerful regional alliances. China doesn't even dominate East Asia; its own region, how would that make them a superpower? It contends with India, Vietnam, South Korea, Japan Australia and New Zealand with enormous political, economic and military backing from the United States. Vietnam, a socialist state has openly aligned itself with the United States.

North Korea is a hermit in stagnation for decades, the Russian Federation is a declining power with outdated technology, industries, infrastructure and lacking competence and Iran is trapped by the United States in the Strait of Hormuz with all the Gulf States on side with the United States.

The United States unlike China has global military, economic, technological and political influence in major international institutions. The United States Navy with its eleven nuclear-powered aircraft carriers acts as the premier security provider for all commercial sea trade to ensure freedom of trade and movement controlling vital routes for China in the Strait of Malacca that of which 80% of her oil comes through. If the United States wanted it could crush the Chinese through preventive measures in the Strait of Malacca causing China to enter into an energy crisis. 

The Russian Federation and Kazakhstan combined cannot supply China with enough oil and natural gas demands for their industries and military. China's Strategic Energy Reserves only would last them at best 18 months to 2 years. The Belt and Road Initiative is decades away from completion Energy infrastructure between China and Iran requires cooperation of the Central Asian States meaning China cannot make aggressive decisions. 

There isn't going to be a Cold War, if the United States maintains the status quo with its regional and global alliances intact, the United States shall continue to dominate as the sole superpower. 

If there is to be a Cold War, it requires China to get South Korea and Japan to completely pivot towards China allowing them nearly complete reign in East Asia and the End of Containment procedures enacted by the United States. The United States would be humiliated internationally forced to shore up its other alliances in the region to counterbalance China, or face an Asia under the Gold and Red Banner. 

This scenario would be a devastating blow to the United States as its global reach is significantly diminished, US allies start questioning whether the United States can maintain its influence and keep the status quo from breaking into a thousand pieces.

UnityOfEva

China has been a dishonest player in world markets for decades now. They have never internally respected or enforced US or international copyright laws, or intellectual property rights. They have habitually engaged in state sponsored corporate espionage and used protectionist policies (like tariffs), to foster the growth of their domestic industrial and technology sectors. The US has very legitimate gripes about China's behavior in international trade.

Trump's insistence that the trade deficit in goods between the US and China presents harm to the American economy, is empty nonsense (either openly dishonest, or just stupid). The numbers he quotes are entirely predicated on trade of goods and ignores trade in services. Services make up around 76.4% of the US GDP (professional services, real estate, finance, software, healthcare, etc.), and are the largest portion of US exports to China, making the trade deficit a great deal smaller than Trump is claiming. 

A Cold War is a period of ideological tension and political rivalry between nations, usually without direct military conflict. In that sense, it seems that yes, the US is in a cold war with China. Donald Trump may see his tariffs as a tool in that indirect conflict, but none of his rhetoric explicitly says so. If the tariffs are meant to have that purpose, they're failing miserably, while harming American economic stability. They're also driving away our allies and forcing them to reassess their trade relationships. Most notably, South Korea and Japan (American allies), have announced they will be cooperating with China, to counter what they view as exploitive and harmful American trade policy. This is a massive tidal shift in global relations, and one that is deeply harmful to American interests. It's frightening that Trump and his administration do not seem to see that reality. 

Russia's expansionist war in Ukraine has become a proxy war for the global tensions between Western partners (The US, Europe, Uk, Canada), and Eastern partners (Russia, China, North Korea, Iran). Trump's removal of US support for Ukraine, is capitulation in that conflict. If this is indeed a cold war, it has to be asked; Why does Donald Trump seem determined to lose it for the United States?

BluesSuedeClues

Tanks are still there. And trade war is still a war. The only thing people don't like nowadays, is to think that they act the same older generations did. So it is not a cold war. How this new cold war will be called we'll see in future.

bluesmaster85

The Cold War didn't really use tanks.... 

It was almost purely financial/political in nature. 

Space Race, Arms Race....lots of "races" to win or lose rather than battles.

UnbelieverInME-2

ehhh, looking more like a shakedown war between billionaires for who Can bilk the population the best, if you are really looking at it...whole thing is a [grift in the US.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QoTV-J7QtLM).

littleredpinto

As a Chinese, I am really confused:Is it the US that is actually being sanctioned now, or is it the US that is taking the initiative.


The United States took the initiative to ask China to embargo goods from the United States.


If the Americans have to cut a big hole in the bottom of their ship, we have no problem with that ......

bjran8888

"Cold War" isn't quite the term that I would use.  That was a protracted conflict that occasionally came close to becoming a hot war.

This Trump disaster will likely fizzle out fairly quickly.  The rest of the world is pushing back while the negative impacts are already becoming apparent to Americans.  Trump will likely create an offramp of sorts for himself by declaring victory even though he will have failed.

The long-term problem is that Trump has established that the US can no longer be trusted with its position of dominance.  Even if the next president is a smart Democrat who works overtime to undo much of this nonsense, other nations will probably be wary of the risks of another populist president flushing everything down the toilet.  

The damage will be more of a slow erosion of power than a grinding conflict. When the dollar loses reserve currency status and skepticism of US treasuries as a risk-free vehicle becomes permanent, then we are truly screwed.  This would probably happen at some point, regardless, but Trump has put US decline into the fast lane.

I405CA

If China decides to sell products manufactured there directly to consumers for lower prices, will companies panic and start lowering prices in stores? If prices come down drastically, will it seem like a result of this administration’s actions and policies instead of citizens being tired of being priced gouged for decades.

LittleLoobyLulu

It should be teaching countries how to be self reliant... It inadvertently spawned a patriotic support local movement in Canada... Maybe by design.

opinionaysha

\&gt;Feels like we’ve swapped the Cold War’s arms race for a tariffs race.

No, the Cold War has turned into a hot war, but it's not as hot as it can get, yet.

US militarism is also pushing for a hot war with China. US militarism is easily the biggest problem on Earth. US militarism is currently doing at least three major things:

1. US militarism is supplying much of the Israeli genocide against Palestine.
2. US militarism is supplying much of the proxy war against Russia,
3. US militarism has had China surrounded for decades.

Factory-town

Global economic shifts due to the US-China trade war position India as a strategic player with increased economic opportunities and geopolitical significance.

US-China Trade War and India's Emerging Economic Role

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